Forecasting the Recovery from the Great Recession: Is This Time Different?

Living Arrangements, Doubling Up, and the Great Recession: Was This Time Different?

The Great Recession brought unemployment rates unseen since the severe recessions of the early 1980s, with the seasonally adjusted rate reaching a peak of 10 percent in October 2009. The government responded to this severe shock with the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, which included expansions to many social safety net programs. In addition to the large expansions to unemployment ...

This Time It ‘ s Different ? Youth Labour Markets During ‘ The Great Recession ’ IZA DP No .

This Time It’s Different? Youth Labour Markets During ‘The Great Recession’ This paper looks at the effects of the ‘Great Recession’ on young people’s labour market experiences in the European Union. The paper documents some of the key characteristics of young people’s labour market experiences during the current recession and then seeks to provide some explanations of these applying both cross...

Evidence from the Great Recession

Employment Hysteresis from the Great Recession

This paper uses U.S. local areas as a laboratory to test whether the Great Recession depressed 2015 employment. In full-population longitudinal data, I find that exposure to a 1-percentage-point-larger 2007-2009 local unemployment shock caused working-age individuals to be 0.4 percentage points less likely to be employed at all in 2015, evidently via labor force exit. These shocks also increase...

Facts and Challenges from the Great Recession for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Modeling

This paper provides a survey of business cycle facts, updated to take account of recent data. Emphasis is given to the Great Recession which was unlike most other post-war recessions in the US in being driven by deleveraging and financial market factors. We document how recessions with financial market origins are different from those driven by supply or monetary policy shocks. This helps expla...